The Lindy Effect as applied to Wado karate.

Some reflections on legacy and the continuation of a tradition.

For anyone who doesn’t know what the Lindy Effect is, it was a theory put forward to describe the predicted longevity of an object, function, machine or material, based upon how long it had survived to the present date.

It came from an observation of a place called the Lindy Deli in New York City where showpeople and comedians would meet and discuss and compare their past performances and potential future. The idea was that however long a show (or an act) had survived in the theatres then its projected future run would be proportional to its past.

For example; if a Broadway show had already been showing for five years, then there was a good bet that it would run for another five years.

Thinkers and theorists have adopted this concept and worked out that it applies to ‘stuff’, ideas and products but not biological entities like people.

Thinker and theorist, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, has also picked up on this idea, “If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “ageing” like persons, but “ageing” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy.” (from ‘Antifragile’).

How this might apply to Wado karate (or any other style of martial art).

As Wado is an idea, a system and not a biological entity with built-in fragility and a natural limited lifespan can this idea/projection be applied?

To grasp this in a simplified version you have to be comfortable a particular and focussed application of symmetry. If this symmetry is directed towards Wado it could work like this; Wado was officially recognised as an entity in the year 1939; that means it’s been around for 84 years. So, theoretically it has the possibility of surviving for another 84 years beyond the current date, so that means we can expect its demise in the year 2107, if that’s the case I take comfort in the fact that I won’t be around to see it.

It’s an interesting idea and I can think of much that can be drawn from it, but there are other external forces that can impact negatively upon Wado as a system, but I will return to those later. To continue with the symmetry theme; I believe that there are more useful symmetries that can be applied and attached to the projection.

I will start with looking closer at the mechanism that created Wado; is it possible that the very process that built Wado would be the same process that would be the cause of its decay and demise? To be more specific; Wado emerged from a conflagration of forces, personalities and cultural factors unique to its time, could it be that an inversion or absence of the factors that helped to build it would be the reason for it to fall apart?

To take this further; if the micro-culture that created it, through the conduit of an individual (or individuals) potent enough to pull the threads together was what was needed to give birth to the system finally named as ‘Wado Ryu’, then surely the absence of this driving force, (this key powerhouse individual as a rallying point), would summon its disintegration?

So, from that I would suggest that ideas won’t survive without leadership; the flagbearers must be up to the job of carrying the tradition forward. But the worry is how Wado practitioners understand the concept of ‘tradition’. A quote attributed to the composer Gustav Mahler pretty much sums it up, he said, “Tradition is not the worship of the ashes, but the preservation of the fire”. The veneration of tradition; usually embodied exclusively through some iconic individual (the ‘ashes’) leads to stagnation; it is at this point that the growth which someone like Otsuka Sensei embedded into the system dies and the inevitable trajectory is that it becomes a parody of itself. Or like a photocopy that is then itself photocopied, and then that copy is copied and so on… it eventually degrades to such a point that it becomes unrecognisable and worthless. As such, through many hands it pulls itself apart.

The very mixture of individuals that created it (or influenced it in major or minor ways) – Otsuka, as the focal point, but also, Nakayama, Funakoshi, Mabuni, Motobu these people and people like them are not around anymore; in fact it is the lack of these types of powerhouse individuals that leaves gaping holes. Who is trying to fill that Otsuka-shaped void now? Is it even possible, given that the micro-climate in which these individuals lived and functioned is now only found in history books, and that today’s micro-climate is more of a macro-climate through globalism, the Internet and the inevitable market economy and fickleness of the general public?

In martial arts people often conflate tradition with preservation. Preservation on its own is not enough; it is too complacent and often reveals lack of ambition and foresight, as well as ignoring how the Japanese concept of ‘Ryu’ actually functions in traditional Budo (‘Ryu’ being ‘stream’ or ‘continuing, developing tradition’). Otsuka Sensei nailed it by saying emphatically that Wado is not the finished article – there probably will never be a ‘finished article’, in fact the idea of a ‘finished article’ is a destructive, self-defeating concept.

Let me be clear, while I understand that you have to make a stand somewhere, you have to nail your colours to the flagpole, the analogy is not helpful; the ‘nailing it’ should be more like a rock climber who hammers his piton into the rock face to move upwards from one point to another.

Utility and value.

Someone once said that time is a filter for quality. I think that is a very crude filter, because it fails to take into consideration that the demands of society change over time; what has value yesterday may not be so valuable, or relevant, today. If you are sticking things in museums as examples of their times then that’s fine, but it doesn’t mean they have the utility today. Having said that, some creations from the past have been around for a very long time; take for example the Zippo lighter, it has some flaws but has been a reliable ‘go-to’ since 1932. But, nowadays, fewer people smoke and nobody wants to buy lighter fuel. The Zippo then is either looked at as a ‘design classic’, or just belongs in a museum as a quaint piece of utility that our grandparents used to use.

‘Value’ is the key word. If something has no use then it follows that it has no value. Things are only of value if the society they exist in actually puts a value on them. In the book ‘The Tyranny of Merit’ author Michael Sandel closely examines this point. An example he gave was that of Michael Jordan, arguably the greatest basketball player of all time and worth millions. He said that if Jordan was transported back in time to the Middle Ages his talent to put a ball through a hoop would be worth zip all. There would be no denying his athletic prowess, but without a market he is a nobody. It is only because this society has created and acknowledged a market that has been suitably hyped to demand the talents of Mr Jordan that his status is assured, it’s as simple as that.

Now apply that to how the martial arts is presented and marketed. As a utility item with an element of practicality attached to it, in the present age it is being starved of oxygen. Despite what the fear mongers’ want us to believe, we don’t live in that type of society any more. If it comes down to defence utility we are on a very sticky wicket; the law would struggle to defend our actions (more so if it is deemed that we are trained to do damage) it’s a hazy world to enter into, and best only indulged in in an extreme emergency; not something to build your entire raison d'être on¹.

No, there must be more to it, surely?

The best model that comes out of it is ‘Budo’. But it is maddeningly difficult to get anyone to fully explain what it is, at least in terms of modern parlance; all you generally get are woolly platitudes which lack any kind of concrete reality.

In conclusion; I wonder if these conversations ever happen, and if so, do they ever act as a call to action? Or does anyone even care?

For anyone who lays awake at night worrying about this stuff, I would ask you to ponder one word, ‘Legacy’, and I don’t mean a legacy that ends with you.

But maybe the sleepless nights are confined to me?

1. I would argue that it is the same dangerous logic that young men in parts of London and the rest of the UK think it’s okay to carry a knife, ‘just in case’. In the US and other parts of the world this same ‘arms race’ takes you into the zone of carrying a handgun, ‘just in case’.